Concept 9 of 9

The external environment

2 questions test this

Every project runs inside conditions it did not choose and cannot change. Two pieces of vocabulary describe those conditions, and both are simpler than their names suggest.

Environmental factors and process assets

Enterprise environmental factors are the conditions the project has to work within and does not get to decide. Some are external, such as legislation, market conditions, exchange rates, the labour market, industry standards and the weather on a construction schedule. Many are internal to the organisation and still outside the project, including the structure, the culture, the systems already in place, the risk appetite and who is genuinely available in March. The category is broad because what defines it is the direction of influence rather than a boundary on an organisation chart.

Organisational process assets are the accumulated material the project may use, meaning templates, standard contract clauses, approved processes, risk checklists, lessons from earlier projects, and the hard data of what previous projects actually cost and how long they actually took. That last item is the most valuable and the least maintained.

The distinction worth holding is that environmental factors constrain you and process assets help you. Only one of the two is yours to improve, and a project that closes without leaving anything behind in the second has left the organisation exactly where it found it.

How the outside gets in

Each kind of change reaches a project by a particular route, and naming the route is what converts a headline into something a project can act on. The third column is the part that separates a risk register from a news summary.

FactorRoute into the projectWhat a project manager can actually do
MarketThe demand assumptions in the business case, and what the organisation can chargeName the assumption the case rests on, set a trigger that would break it, and take the case back to the sponsor when the trigger fires
RegulatoryRequirements and dates that cannot be renegotiated, frequently announced while delivery is under wayTrack the consultation stage instead of waiting for enactment, keep the affected design decisions reversible while that is still cheap, and hold a named contact in the compliance function
Supply chainLead times, single sources, and the financial health of a supplierOrder long lead items early and carry the cost, qualify a second source where the premium is affordable, and monitor a published lead time against a stated threshold
EconomicThe discount rate applied to the business case, exchange rates on anything bought abroad, wage inflation on anything running for years, and the availability of funding itselfSize contingency to the observed volatility rather than to a habitual percentage, fix prices through the contract where the supplier will wear it, and stage the largest irreversible spend
GeopoliticalSanctions, export controls, data localisation rules, and the workability of an offshore team or a manufacturing routeTreat the jurisdiction of data and of people as an explicit design decision with a fallback behind it, and escalate early, since the response belongs above the project

Market conditions arrive through the demand assumptions in the business case, and through what the organisation can charge. A market that softens does not delay your project. It removes the benefits that justified it.

Regulation arrives as requirements and as dates that cannot be renegotiated. The dangerous ones are the changes announced during delivery, because they land against a design already committed.

The supply chain arrives through lead times, single sources and supplier viability. The failure is rarely a price rise. It is an availability gap discovered at the point of ordering, or a supplier whose finances fail halfway through.

Economic shifts arrive through the discount rate applied to the business case, through exchange rates on anything bought abroad, through wage inflation on anything running for years, and through the availability of funding itself.

Geopolitical shifts arrive through sanctions, export controls, data localisation rules and the workability of an offshore team or a manufacturing route.

Monitoring what you do not control

Watching is not the same as worrying about it, and the difference is specificity. A monitoring arrangement has a named indicator, a source, a person who looks at it, a frequency and a threshold that triggers something.

"Keep an eye on the market" is a wish. "The published lead time for this component, checked monthly by the procurement lead, escalated to the steering group if it passes ten weeks" is monitoring, because it will actually fire and somebody will have to do something when it does. The same test applies to every external risk on a register, and applying it usually shortens the register considerably.

Tolerance beats forecasting

The instinctive response to an uncertain environment is to predict it harder. Organisations spend a great deal on forecasting exchange rates and demand, and the accuracy achieved beyond a short horizon is poor enough that the spend is difficult to justify.

Building tolerance is the alternative, and it takes several forms. Contingency in cost and schedule sized to how volatile the environment actually is rather than to a habitual percentage. Design decisions that avoid a single supplier or a single jurisdiction where the premium is affordable. Ordering long lead items early and accepting the carrying cost. Contracts that permit a variation without a renegotiation. Staging the commitment so that the largest irreversible spend happens after the biggest uncertainty has resolved.

The reason to prefer this is that it works whether or not you turned out to be right. A plan that survives being wrong is worth considerably more than a forecast that is nearly correct, and it is the only one of the two that can be bought reliably.

Common misconceptions

Enterprise environmental factors are the things outside the organisation.

They are the things outside the project's control, which includes plenty inside the organisation. Structure, culture, risk appetite, the systems already in place and who is actually available are all environmental factors from where the project sits.

A risk the project cannot control is not worth logging.

Prevention is only one response. Monitoring with a named trigger, contingency in cost and schedule, contractual transfer and staging the commitment so the big spend comes after the uncertainty resolves are all available, and none of them requires control over the cause.

2 questions test this concept

A programme depends on a single specialist component whose published lead time has moved between six and fourteen weeks over the past year. The risk register carries an entry saying that component availability will be monitored, and the project has no influence over the supplier's capacity. What is the most effective response?

  • ACommission a forecast of the supplier's lead times across the next twelve months and build the schedule around it.
  • BGive the entry an indicator, a source, an owner, a monthly check and a threshold that escalates, and order the item early enough that the plan survives the longer figure.
  • CClose the entry, since a risk the project cannot control cannot be managed.
  • DIncrease the schedule contingency by the ten per cent the organisation applies to every project of this size.
Check whether it stuck.

One per page, with a worked explanation.

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Related material
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Identifying and Managing Project Risk, On identification checklists built from what went wrong on real projects.
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Waltzing with Bears, On plans that assume nothing goes wrong, and what to do instead.
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How Big Things Get Done, On using the record of similar projects rather than a fresh forecast.